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Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Iowa Vote: Everybody Gets a Medal!

Went into the early morning hours watching the results and discussions of the results of the Iowa caucuses (IC). For a political junkie it was fascinating. American politics are truly the Greatest Show on Earth. No other country devotes anywhere near as much to politics in terms of resources, effort, and commentary than does the USA. We love to hate our obsession with politics which we love to hate because we love them and . . . never mind. We are bonkers for national politics. Period.

And that, my friends, is about as deep as I can go in my analysis of the IC.  What's it all mean in the long run? I don't know, nor does anybody else. If you win the IC, do you win the nomination? Not necessarily or even usually--at least on the Republican side. Given the uniqueness of the IC and the odd demographics of Iowa--a very nice place, btw--what does a victory there mean for a candidate's prospects? I don't know, and nobody else does either, although that doesn't stop any of us from talking as though we do.  

So, that said, let's talk as if we know what we are about. First, the Dems. As I write, it seems that the Dem IC has produced a tie between Clinton and Sanders. Hillary Clinton did not look happy at her "victory/concession/it's great it's a tie speech." Is it me or is she getting really Crazy Woman eyes? Standing there with her nearly mummified spouse and her dopey "I wanna be a Kennedy" daughter, Hillary Clinton gave off an air of madness: the disjointed word salad, the out-of-sync fist pumping, and that unblinking STARE. This lady is not well and she looked like somebody was going to get the thrashing of his or her life in the bus afterwards, "You told me I was going to win!" Has the Rightful Heir to the Throne been thwarted yet again? Calling King Zog! Calling King Zog! I don't know about that, but I do know I would not want to be around Hillary Clinton today.

Bernie Sanders. Yes. What can we say about Bernie Sanders? He is a life-long lay-about and Communist with an older British brother, Larry--also a politically active leftist crank--who has emerged on the political scene to challenge the Clinton Machine. He has attracted a legion of low-information, economically illiterate followers who "Feel The Bern" given by a 74-year-old mountebank. He is a loon with followers who rely on their no-content education to guide them to his tent. Is he the big winner in Iowa? I don't know. He did deny Hillary Clinton the IC prize, so I guess that's a victory of some sort. It seems, however, that Iowa Dem politics is tailor-made for Sanders and his goofy Marxist mumbo-jumbo: lots of young liberal foolish white students with not much else to do but play at Revolution. Given the odd make-up of the Dem electorate in Iowa, he probably could have done better, I guess, I think, I don't know. You decide.

The GOP? Much more interesting. It would seem that Trump took a Cruz missile hit. Enough to sink his ship? Doubt it, but, what do I know? Trump looked genuinely surprised by his second-place finish, but gave a gracious concession speech. The polling, of course, was way off, and Ted Cruz pulled off a significant victory--if, that is, you consider winning in Iowa significant. He, apparently, had a well-organized ground game that delivered his supporters to the IC sites and kept them loyal. I never got the impression that Trump bothered much with organization, and relied on his name and the enthusiasm shown by his fans to translate into votes. He did come in second, which is nothing to sneeze at, but still, when you brag about never losing, always winning, it must be a shock. Rubio kept himself alive with a strong third-place showing and, apparently, gained some benefits from Trump's failure to appear at the last Fox debate. A dynamic, articulate, and attractive candidate, he would eat Hillary or Bernie for lunch in debate. Is Rubio a PURE conservative? Who is? We all have changed our minds over time. The interesting thing for me is that about 85% of the Republican vote went to four non-establishment or, at least, out of the norm candidates: two hispanic, one black, and one not even a Republican. So, then, which is the party of diversity?

Back to Cruz. He won Iowa, which showed that he can take on Trump. Will that translate into further victories? You know the answer, and it is, I don't know. I thought his victory speech not his best--way too long--and am not sure he won doubters with it. Cruz, however, is very smart, a good debater, and certainly would make a better president than Sanders, Clinton or Obama. At this stage of the game, that's good enough for me.

That's it. I am out of ammo.

Going to walk the dogs who are doing much better, and are eager to spread joy and cheer in the 'hood.

40 comments:

  1. I suspect that Trump hurt himself by taking low blows against Cruz on his Canadian birthplace - just a backhanded way to diss his Cuban-ness/semi-non-whiteness.

    I think this was a rookie mistake. In the long run there is great cross-over support between Cruz and Trump. For most of their supporters they are 1/2 or 2/1. I know I both support Trump AND contribute to Cruz.

    Trump will learn and adjust but Cruz has a plan that he'll stick to.

    I just checked and my primary ballot is on its way to me here in Korea. When I get it, I'll decide which one to vote for then deliver it to the embassy in Seoul for them to send it back to Florida in their diplomatic pouch. It sounds so elitist being handled that way - my vote must count three times!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "I suspect that Trump hurt himself ..."

      I don't know, Mr. Hall. Trump could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue et cetera.

      Delete
    2. I'm not sure Trump is really able to learn and adjust. He's a nasty guy and he falls back on that nastiness when he takes a hit. Although he was gracious for a few minutes Monday night, he quickly reverted to form with his unhinged claims that Cruz "stole" the primary victory.

      Delete
  2. Frédéric Bastiat (died 1850):
    === ===
    Socialism, like the ancient ideas from which it springs, confuses the distinction between government and society. As a result of this, every time we object to a thing being done by government, the socialists conclude that we object to its being done at all.
    === ===

    I offer this: Every time we object to immigration as managed by our socialist government, the socialists scream that we are bigots who object to any immigration at all.

    The situation is confused. Socialists want illegal immigration because those people vote 90% Democrat. Any societal problems are worth being in power for the next 50 years. Advertisement: Come to the US and vote for us. We won't throw you out, but the Republicans will.

    Business interests observe that lower-income citizens are (on average) short term and unproductive. They shirk work and leave when their unemployment benefits recycle. Immigrants who want to work are much more conscientious and are working hard for a goal. So, the Chamber of Commerce wants immigration, mostly by H1 visa. And, they want minimal immigration enforcement so their workers won't be thrown out of the country. Businesses are easy targets for enforcement.

    There is no reconciliation to this because the fight is happening outside of the law. Immigration has two meanings. Enforcement has two meanings.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is true, although unremarked, that Caesar Chavez and his farm workers' union killed farm labor. It is all automated now. Minimum wage laws will soon do the same to fast food outlets. It isn't just that Socialism doesn't work. It kills off its adherents.

      Delete
    2. Thank you, Mr. K. That is a very astute unremark.

      Delete
  3. "Candidates, welcome to Iowa. Take your plate of mixed vegetables and go home."

    - reader #1482

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  4. Dear D'Mad,

    Glad the pups are doing better. Console them, though, for the fact that they did not come in first in the Democratic Caucuses. Apparently someone mistook Hillary and Bernie for actual people, and so denied the four legged people a chance.

    What a mistake.

    Green Bear

    ReplyDelete
  5. According to a lot of news stories, Hillary had to cheat to win in Iowa. Like winning six coin tosses in a row to win one delegate and other things too. Its late in the evening for me so I won't go into details but there are plenty of accounts on how Hillary cheated to win in Iowa.

    Hillary is just to about to lose big time to Sanders in New Hampshire. The question in my mind is if Hillary looks like a loser, will the Obama let the DOJ indict her for her e-mail scandal. As the Diplomad would say, "I don't know".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If Joe Biden whispers into Obama's ear that he has reconsidered and wants to run after all, the prez may let justice take its natural course after all. A big "If," I know...but this is a very, very strange election year.

      Delete
    2. I'm supposing the coin tossing is sparsely sourced stuff. Odd of calling six in a row are 1:128, which is far but not terribly far. Odds of calling 6 of 7 is about 1:36. The odds get very 'normal' from there. If the Register reported only the 6 coin tosses that favored Hillary, it seems likely to be fair.
      I just can't imagine bernie supporters would buy into a rigged coin toss.... well.. not unless it was in their favor.

      - reader #1482

      Delete
    3. sorry.. math is off.. 1:64 for the 2^6

      Delete
    4. Since the coin tosses were impromptu and conducted in full view of supporters of each side, it is exceedingly unlikely Clinton HQ managed to rig them. Just dumb luck.

      What's interesting is that the Democratic State Chairman refuses to release the raw vote tally (which was reported on the Republican side).

      Delete
  6. Mr Mad, glad your dogs are better!

    ReplyDelete
  7. Why didn't Ted Kennedy's corpse run in Iowa? I'm sure that it would have done very well winning coin tosses. And it's done much less harm to the USA than Hellary has. And it's less socialist than Sanders.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You have a future as a political consultant.

      Delete
  8. Chelsea has poor judgment (getting mixed up in her mother's money laundering operation) and has a history of dilettentish behavior (wandering through employment in McKinsey-type consulting, academic administration, and broadcasting). I'm not sure how she qualifies as 'dopey' inasmuch as she has multiple advanced degrees (including one from Columbia and one from Oxford). She needs to get the heck away from her mother's corrupt shenanigans and find employment she can stay interested in and which fits in with her domestic life (2d child on the way).

    ReplyDelete
  9. What hits you about her speech was how pointless it was (are most of them?). It reminds one of C.S. Lewis' skewering of lectures by H.G. Wells.

    ReplyDelete
  10. If Scooter Libby was punished for outing Valerie Plame, Shrillary Shrooooo is an even better candidate for prosecution. A SecState who actually jeopardized national security as odds on favorite for next POTUS (I'm sorry, but the media support and the coalition are there for her) is a national crisis even bigger than Watergate.

    The fact that liberals are not breaking ranks over Shrillary Shroooo's character, scorn for the First Amendment, and jeopardizing national security in her emails (as Sam Ervin clearly went after Nixon over Watergate) tells me that we are facing a first-class national catastrophe.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not that it matters, but Scooter Libby was innocent as a lamb. The real snake was fellow Vulcan Dick Armitage (whose middle name, I regret to say, is Lee, not Head).

      Moreover, during Libby's prosecution, Secretary of State General Colin Luther Powell knew this but kept quiet and let Libby twist in the wind.

      General Powell, parenthetically, is a great defender of affirmative action, a good that has many beneficiaries in general but not even one in particular, especially not General Powell.

      Delete
  11. It's been fascinating viewing Iowa, pre and post caucus through opposite lenses of right (Fox, Limbaugh, Savage, and local RW hacks) and left (MSNBC, Democracy Now, NY Times). You'd think they were reporting on two completely different events. NH is shaping up to be similar. At least it's next door to me so I can actually put some boots on the ground and call up others that are actually "plugged-in" in Manchester and other places in the state.

    To find anything remotely approaching "truthiness," you have to hearken around the dusty corner of the interwebs, seeking out sites like this one and a handful of others I've found much more trustworthy than the so-called MSM sources, or better-known alt-news outlets.

    Glad to have found your site.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Since you spent time with MSNBC, et al, I don't have to if you'll summarize their take(s) for us.

      Delete
  12. Dip - loved your description of Hil, especially the bit about the weird fist pump. Nice to see you have not lost your eye for detail.

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